Implications of increased urbanization and consumer awareness on future food supplies in Tanzania

Tanzania’s food system faces increasing pressure from rapid urbanization, population growth, and shifting consumer preferences toward more nutritious and diverse diets. This study analyzes how these macro trends will affect national food supply needs by 2050 and identifies key policy entry points to ensure an efficient, sustainable, and equitable food system transformation. Using census data (2012–2022) and the National Panel Survey (2020/21), combined with two international healthy diet benchmarks – the EAT-Lancet Reference Diet (ELRD) and the Hypothetical Micronutrient Adequate Diet (HMAD) – the report projects the required food supply volumes to provide all Tanzanians with healthy diets by 2050. Tanzania’s population is projected to more than double, from 59.8 million in 2020/21 to 138.1 million by 2050, with the share of urban residents rising from 34.5% to 55.4%. This demographic shift implies that a relatively smaller rural workforce will need to feed a much larger and more urban population, requiring higher productivity and stronger rural-urban linkages. Current diets in Tanzania are heavily dominated by cereals and sugar products and contain too few fruits, dairy products, and eggs (according to both healthy diet references) combined with insufficient amounts of vegetables (according to ELRD) as well as meat and fish products (according to HMAD). To assure a heathy diet for all by 2050, the supplies and consumption of food from these food groups must expand substantially. This not only requires that total annual food supplies increase from 24 million tons to 52 million tons (under ELRD) or 62 million tons (under HMAD), but certainly also that its composition change dramatically: vegetables by roughly 3 times of current supply; oils by 4 times; fruits by 5 times; dairy by 8 times; eggs by 10 times (under ELRD) and 37 times (under HMAD), and meat and fish by 4 and 8 times (under HMAD), respectively. In contrast, cereal and sugar production can remain stable or even decrease slightly without compromising nutritional adequacy. Meeting these targets requires significant productivity gains. For key commodities such as milk, oranges, sunflower oil, tomatoes, and beans, yield improvements of 2-10 times current levels are needed, though still within feasible global productivity frontiers. Addressing post-harvest losses (PHL) and expanding processing, cold storage, and urban agriculture are possibly also critical avenues to reduce waste and improve food availability. From an environmental viewpoint, the study urges the adoption of sustainable intensification practices and climate-smart livestock management, with emphasis on reducing emissions per unit of output, diversifying protein sources toward fish and poultry, and improving logistics and market inclusion for smallholders. In policy terms, the report highlights alignment between its findings and Tanzania’s Agriculture Master Plan (2024), noting that 12 of the 20 government-prioritized commodities (e.g., banana, avocado, tomatoes, sunflower, beans, and dairy) are also essential for future healthy diets. However, important food items such as eggs, onions, leafy vegetables, mangoes, and oranges remain underemphasized and deserve greater policy focus. The agenda on PHL, though formally acknowledged, is also inadequately mainstreamed into Tanzania’s broader agricultural policy framework. In conclusion, achieving healthy diets for all Tanzanians by 2050 will require, in addition to raising nutrition awareness and improving economic affordability among the population: • A more than doubling of total food supplies with major shifts toward nutrient-rich foods, • Substantial agricultural productivity and efficiency gains, • A stronger emphasis on reducing PHL and strengthening urban food systems, and • A coordinated policy focus on nutrition-sensitive and environmentally sustainable production.