Varietal adoption, turnover, and concentration for major crops in Ethiopia: Evidence from household surveys and field sample genotyping

Although continuous genetic improvement of crops cultivated by smallholder farmers is a well-known route to increasing agricultural productivity, our understanding of varietal adoption, turnover, and concentration in farmers’ fields is limited. Often, the greatest challenge to our understanding lies in the measurement approach (farmer self-reports versus DNA fingerprinting), as well as in the analysis and interpretation of the available data. To address this issue, we explore variety-level data on four main crops (wheat, maize, teff, and common bean) in Ethiopia. We estimate the area-weighted average varietal age (AWAVA) of each crop using data from a nationally representative sample survey of farm households and a unique genotyping dataset based on seed samples collected from the fields of sampled farm households. We also calculate indices to explore the concentration of varieties in farmers’ fields, which serves to substantiate the varietal age analysis. Overall, results show considerable variation in average varietal age across crops, ranging from 12.5 years for wheat to 28.2 years for common bean. Analysis of area shares of individual varieties for each crop indicates that slower varietal turnover (i.e., higher varietal age) is driven by the continued dominance of older varieties, despite the presence of newer varieties in the market. Slow varietal turnover in the presence of new varieties suggests the need for greater investment in the systems and markets through which seed is distributed to farmers. This includes stronger coordination of research and extension activities, improvement of variety-specific popularization and marketing efforts, and continued experimentation in seed sector development in Ethiopia.