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Maintaining Confidence

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  • David Murphy

Abstract

This paper proposes the solvency/liquidity spiral as an failure mode affecting large financial institutions in the recent crisis. The essential features of this mode are that a combination of funding liquidity risk and investor doubts over the solvency of an institution can lead to its failure. We analyse the failures of Lehman Brothers and RBS in detail, and find considerable support for the spiral model of distress. Our model suggests that a key determinant of the financial stability of many large banks is the confidence of the funding markets. This has consequences for the design of financial regulation, suggesting that capital requirements, liquidity rules, and disclosure should be explicitly constructed so as not just to mitigate solvency risk and liquidity risk, but also to be seen to do so even in stressed conditions.

Suggested Citation

  • David Murphy, 2012. "Maintaining Confidence," FMG Special Papers sp216, Financial Markets Group.
  • Handle: RePEc:fmg:fmgsps:sp216
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    File URL: http://www.lse.ac.uk/fmg/workingPapers/specialPapers/PDF/SP216.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Luc Laeven & Harry Huizinga, 2009. "Accounting discretion of banks during a financial crisis," IMF Working Papers 09/207, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Darrell Duffie, 2010. "The Failure Mechanics of Dealer Banks," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 24(1), pages 51-72, Winter.
    3. Frank Packer & Nikola Tarashev, 2011. "Rating methodologies for banks," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, June.
    4. Claudio E. V. Borio & Kostas Tsatsaronis, 2006. "Risk in financial reporting: status, challenges and suggested directions," BIS Working Papers 213, Bank for International Settlements.
    5. Markus K. Brunnermeier, 2009. "Deciphering the Liquidity and Credit Crunch 2007-2008," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 23(1), pages 77-100, Winter.
    6. Larry D. Wall & Timothy W. Koch, 2000. "Bank loan-loss accounting: a review of theoretical and empirical evidence," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, issue Q2, pages 1-20.
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    Cited by:

    1. Leo Wangler & Juan-Carlos Altamirano-Cabrera & Hans-Peter Weikard, 2013. "The political economy of international environmental agreements: a survey," International Environmental Agreements: Politics, Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 13(3), pages 387-403, September.
    2. David McEvoy & Todd Cherry & John Stranlund, 2015. "Endogenous Minimum Participation in International Environmental Agreements: An Experimental Analysis," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 62(4), pages 729-744, December.
    3. Todd Cherry & David McEvoy, 2013. "Enforcing Compliance with Environmental Agreements in the Absence of Strong Institutions: An Experimental Analysis," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 54(1), pages 63-77, January.

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