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Fiscal Dominance and the Long-Term Interest Rate

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  • Philip Turner

Abstract

Very high government debt/GDP ratios will increase uncertainty about inflation and the future path of real interest rates. This will reduce substitutability across the yield curve. In such circumstances, changes in the short-term/long-term mix of government debt held by the public will become more effective in achieving macroeconomic objectives. In circumstances of imperfect substitutability, central bank purchases or sales of government bonds have been seen historically as a key tool of monetary policy. Since the mid-1990s, however, responsibility for government debt management has been assigned to other bodies. The mandates of the government debt manager could have the unintended consequence of making their actions endogenous to macroeconomic policies. There is evidence that decisions on the maturity of debt have in the past been linked to both fiscal and monetary policy. Recent Quantitative Easing (QE) by the central bank must be analysed from the perspective of the consolidated balance sheet of government and central bank.

Suggested Citation

  • Philip Turner, 2011. "Fiscal Dominance and the Long-Term Interest Rate," FMG Special Papers sp199, Financial Markets Group.
  • Handle: RePEc:fmg:fmgsps:sp199
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    File URL: http://www.lse.ac.uk/fmg/workingPapers/specialPapers/PDF/SP199.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Blog mentions

    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. Banques centrales et dette publique : les liaisons dangereuses ?
      by Laurence Duboys Fresney in OFCE le blog on 2014-03-05 16:17:31
    2. Central banks and public debt: dangerous liaisons?
      by Laurence Duboys Fresney in OFCE le blog on 2014-03-06 19:56:31

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    Cited by:

    1. christiaan Pattipeilohy, 2016. "A comparative analysis of developments in central bank balance sheet composition," BIS Working Papers 559, Bank for International Settlements.
    2. Jhuvesh Sobrun & Philip Turner, 2015. "Bond markets and monetary policy dilemmas for the emerging markets," BIS Working Papers 508, Bank for International Settlements.
    3. DECEANU Liviu-Daniel & SECHEL Ioana Cristina, 2015. "Realities And Perspectives Concerning Sovereign Debt," Revista Economica, Lucian Blaga University of Sibiu, Faculty of Economic Sciences, vol. 67(4), pages 19-36.
    4. Landau, J.P., 2012. "Policies on sovereign debt," Financial Stability Review, Banque de France, issue 16, pages 191-201, April.
    5. Claudio Borio & Anna Zabai, 2016. "Unconventional monetary policies: a re-appraisal," BIS Working Papers 570, Bank for International Settlements.
    6. Weale, Martin & Wieladek, Tomasz, 2016. "What are the macroeconomic effects of asset purchases?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 81-93.
    7. Michael Davies & Tim Ng, 2011. "The rise of sovereign credit risk: implications for financial stability," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, September.
    8. Christiaan Pattipeilohy, 2016. "A comparative analysis of developments in central bank balance sheet composition," DNB Working Papers 510, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.

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