The Cost of Conservatism: Extreme Returns, Value-at Risk, and the Basle Multiplicaiton Factor
We argue that most current methodologies for value-at-risk (VaR) underestimate the VaR, and are therefore ill-suited for market risk capital. Better VaR methods are available, such as the tail-fitting method proposed here. However, financial institutions may be relctant to use those mehtods since current market risk regulations may, perversely, provide incentives for banks to underestimate the VaR.
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- Paul H. Kupiec & James M. O'Brien, 1997. "The pre-commitment approach: using incentives to set market risk capital requirements," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1997-14, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).