IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/fmg/fmgdps/dp428.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Internal ratings, the business cycle and capital requirements: some evidence from an emerging market economy

Author

Listed:
  • Philip Lowe

Abstract

The concept of risk-based capital requirements enjoys widespread support. Effective implementation, however, requires that risk be measured accurately both across borrowers and across time. Under the New Capital Accord, the cornerstone of this risk measurement process is the rating of the borrower. In this paper we use the ratings assigned by individual Mexican banks to examine how measured credit risk for these banks has changed since the financial crisis in the mid-1990s. We then examine the implications of these changes in risk for regulatory capital under the proposed changes to the Basel Capital Accord. We find that measured risk increased after the crisis and then fell as the recovery took hold. In turn, despite the limitations of the data, we find that the proposed internal ratings-based approach would have generated large swings in regulatory capital requirements over the second half of the 1990s, with required capital increasing significantly in the aftermath of the crisis, and then falling as the economy recovered. Looking forward, if movements in actual bank capital were to show this same cyclical variation, then business cycle fluctuations might be amplified by developments in the banking industry.

Suggested Citation

  • Philip Lowe, 2002. "Internal ratings, the business cycle and capital requirements: some evidence from an emerging market economy," FMG Discussion Papers dp428, Financial Markets Group.
  • Handle: RePEc:fmg:fmgdps:dp428
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.lse.ac.uk/fmg/workingPapers/discussionPapers/fmgdps/DP428.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gordy, Michael B., 2000. "A comparative anatomy of credit risk models," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 119-149, January.
    2. Nickell, Pamela & Perraudin, William & Varotto, Simone, 2000. "Stability of rating transitions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 203-227, January.
    3. Con Keating & Hyun Song Shin & Charles Goodhart & Jon Danielsson, 2001. "An Academic Response to Basel II," FMG Special Papers sp130, Financial Markets Group.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Eva Catarineu-Rabell & Patricia Jackson & Dimitrios Tsomocos, 2005. "Procyclicality and the new Basel Accord - banks’ choice of loan rating system," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 26(3), pages 537-557, October.
    2. C. A. E. Goodhart & Miguel A. Segoviano Basurto & Boris Hofmann, 2006. "Default, Credit Growth, and Asset Prices," IMF Working Papers 06/223, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Claudio Borio, 2011. "Rediscovering the Macroeconomic Roots of Financial Stability Policy: Journey, Challenges, and a Way Forward," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 3(1), pages 87-117, December.
    4. Athanasoglou, Panayiotis P. & Daniilidis, Ioannis & Delis, Manthos D., 2014. "Bank procyclicality and output: Issues and policies," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 58-83.
    5. Markus Behn & Rainer Haselmann & Paul Wachtel, 2016. "Procyclical Capital Regulation and Lending," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 71(2), pages 919-956, April.
    6. repec:onb:oenbwp:y:2003:i:5:b:1 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Ines Drumond, 2009. "Bank Capital Requirements, Business Cycle Fluctuations And The Basel Accords: A Synthesis," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(5), pages 798-830, December.
    8. Miguel A. Segoviano & Charles Goodhart, 2010. "Distress Dependence and Financial Stability," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 569, Central Bank of Chile.
    9. Rodriguez, Analía, 2007. "Distribución de pérdidas de la cartera de créditos: el método unifactorial de Basilea II vs. estimaciones no paramétricas," MPRA Paper 12637, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. C. A. E. Goodhart & Miguel A. Segoviano Basurto, 2015. "Optimal Bank Recovery," IMF Working Papers 15/217, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Raupach, Peter, 2015. "Calculating trading book capital: Is risk separation appropriate?," Discussion Papers 19/2015, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    12. Miguel A. Segoviano Basurto, 2006. "Portfolio Credit Risk and Macroeconomic Shocks; Applications to Stress Testing Under Data-Restricted Environments," IMF Working Papers 06/283, International Monetary Fund.
    13. Sebastián Nieto Parra, 2005. "The Macroeconomic Implications of the New Banking Capital Regulation in Emerging Markets: A Duopoly Model Adapted to Risk-Averse Banks," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/810, Sciences Po.
    14. Rodríguez Dupuy, Analía, 2007. "Loan portfolio loss distribution: Basel II unifactorial approach vs. Non parametric estimations," MPRA Paper 10697, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Vanessa Redak & Alexander Tscherteu, 2003. "Basel II, Procyclicality and Credit Growth - First Conclusions from QIS 3," Financial Stability Report, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 5, pages 56-69.
    16. Fabrizio Fabi & Sebastiano Laviola & Paolo Marullo Reedtz, 2004. "The treatment of SMEs loans in the New Basel Capital Accord: some evaluations," Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 57(228), pages 29-70.
    17. Anatoly Peresetsky & Alexandr Karminsky & Sergei Golovan, 2011. "Probability of default models of Russian banks," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 44(4), pages 297-334, November.
    18. Fabrizio Fabi & Sebastiano Laviola & Paolo Marullo Reedtz, 2004. "The treatment of SMEs loans in the New Basel Capital Accord: some evaluations," BNL Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 57(228), pages 29-70.
    19. Benford, James & Nier, Erlend, 2007. "Financial Stability Paper No 3: Monitoring Cyclicality of Basel II Capital Requirements," Bank of England Financial Stability Papers 3, Bank of England.
    20. Пересецкий А.А., 2007. "Методы Оценки Вероятности Дефолта Банков," Журнал Экономика и математические методы (ЭММ), Центральный Экономико-Математический Институт (ЦЭМИ), vol. 43(3), июль.
    21. Griffith-Jones, Stephany & Ocampo, José Antonio, 2003. "What progress on international financial reform? why so limited?," Sede de la CEPAL en Santiago (Estudios e Investigaciones) 34941, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    22. Ali, Syed Babar, 2012. "Quality of Internal Risk Rating Frameworks at Commercial Banks in Pakistan," MPRA Paper 55117, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    23. Rubén Ascúa, 2006. "Financial Instruments for Argentine SMEs afterthe Crisis.Teachings from the German Case," Proceedings-4th International Conference on Management, Enterprise and Benchmarking (MEB 2006), Óbuda University, Keleti Faculty of Business and Management.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fmg:fmgdps:dp428. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (The FMG Administration). General contact details of provider: http://www.lse.ac.uk/fmg/ .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.