China Shock or China Boost? Intermediate Inputs and Manufacturing Resilience in Poland

We analyze the effects of increased trade exposure to China on the Polish labor market during the period 2011–2019. Utilizing detailed industry-level data and an instrumental variable strategy based on trade flows from other Visegrad Group countries, we disentangle the impacts of import competition and access to imported intermediate inputs. We find that while import competition induced job losses in specific sectors, industries benefiting from access to Chinese intermediate inputs experienced substantial employment gains. Critically, this positive input channel effect was sufficient to offset the majority of displacement losses caused by import competition. Although manufacturing as a whole faced a slight net decline, the aggregate economy experienced net employment expansion. These results identify a “China Boost” driven by intermediate inputs, suggesting that Chinese imports act as strategic complements to domestic labor in Poland, contrasting sharply with the “China Shock” observed in the United States.