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Driving Through Economic Fog (Still)

Author

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  • Tom Barkin

Abstract

A year ago today, I stood before a group like this one and described navigating last year’s economy as trying to drive through fog. I can’t stand here a year later and tell you the fog has lifted. If anything, it’s deepened and spread. Artificial intelligence (AI) has been a critical part of the fog machine. Its capabilities are advancing dramatically. The range of possible outcomes is wide and it’s hard to see clearly through all the frenzy. Then add in the fog of war. Oil prices have spiked. Supply chains have been disrupted. Uncertainty has surged. No one knows how long the Iran conflict will persist, nor what its aftereffects will be. At our last meeting, with risks to both the labor market and inflation, and the outlook foggy, it felt prudent to hold rates and await more clarity on how we should be leaning to best support the economy going forward.

Suggested Citation

  • Tom Barkin, 2026. "Driving Through Economic Fog (Still)," Speech 103245, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:r00034:103245
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    File URL: https://www.richmondfed.org/press_room/speeches/thomas_i_barkin/2026/barkin_speech_20260327
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