The Economic Outlook, April 2010

Thank you and welcome to the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond's Regional Forum. I suspect that most of you have heard that the recession is over and I also suspect that few of you feel like the recession is over. The unemployment rate is still high nationally and still rising in West Virginia. Perhaps the best analogy is to taking a hard foul on the way to the basket; the recession (the way economists define it) is over when you hit the floor. But you don't feel like it's over until you get back up on your feet, and even then you may have some lingering bruises. Well, the consensus is that we hit the floor last summer and have been in the process of getting back on our feet ever since. That represents recovery, but the pain is still with many of us to be sure, and we are a long way from a full recovery. This evening I would like to share with you my views on where our economy stands both at the national and state level and where it seems to be headed, and then hear directly from you about your concerns. Before I begin, I should note that I speak only for myself and not for my colleagues on the Federal Open Market Committee.