Economic Outlook, October 2010

It is a pleasure to be with you tonight. I have been visiting the area for the past few days and I am impressed with the knowledge and innovation that this region has to offer and the possibilities for future growth. However, I am here with you tonight to discuss the nation's economic outlook, which, as you probably know, is disappointing. As I will outline, this recovery has been more sluggish than many expected, although it is worth bearing in mind that the economy is growing. As usual, but worth emphasizing nonetheless, the views I express are my own and do not necessarily reflect the thinking of my colleagues on the Federal Open Market Committee.1 I will begin with some background. In 2008 and the first half of 2009 we experienced our worst recession since the Great Depression, as measured by the traditional gauges of depth, duration and breadth. To mention one, the unemployment rate more than doubled, rising from 4.4 percent in early 2007 to 10.1 percent last fall. The Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research, the people that officially decide these things, recently declared that June 2009 marks the end of the recession. In the four quarters following the end of the recession, real GDP rose by 3 percent, which is pretty sluggish in comparison to other similar periods.