Economic Outlook, February 2011

I do not often get invited to speak outside of the Fifth Federal Reserve District, which is the Richmond Fed's territory, but when I do, it is a pleasure to visit the district of such a good friend and colleague as President Charles Plosser of the Third Federal Reserve District. As President of the Philly Fed, Charlie has spoken at this event in the past, which implies some measure of continuity today, since I rarely find fault with his perspectives. That said, I should note that my comments today on the economic outlook are indeed my own, and should not be taken to implicate President Plosser or any other of my colleagues on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).1 Our economy, overall, is growing at a steadily increasing pace and inflation is low and stable, although, as always, visible risks to this outlook for continued recovery remain. The most striking feature of this recovery is that until recently it has been relatively slow compared to past recoveries, particularly those following the two other severe recessions of the past 60 years – the recessions of 1973-75 and 1981-82.