What Does the Path to Full Recovery Look Like?

Thank you for that kind introduction, Bruce. It's a pleasure to speak with you today, especially since this venue is air conditioned and it's 95 degrees outside. More importantly, though, this is an economically important and unique region within the Fifth Federal Reserve District. The fertile mixture of technology- and defense-related industries has, over the years, given rise to a strong and vibrant agglomeration of human capital that can serve as a powerful engine of regional growth going forward. Prospects for the path of economic growth in this area, as well as the northern Virginia region more broadly, look bright, in my view. My topic today, though, will be growth at the national level. I'd like to start by saying that the U.S. economy is growing rapidly, jobs are becoming more plentiful and inflation is low. Unfortunately, as much as I would like to paint such a rosy picture, the reality is quite different; unemployment is high, inflation has risen and economic growth has been decidedly mediocre. These facts are behind us and there's nothing we can do about them. The more important question is what happens from here? What does the path to full recovery look like? That's what I'm going to talk about today. I should emphasize that these remarks are my own and the views expressed are not necessarily shared by my colleagues in the Federal Reserve System.1