The Economic Outlook for 2004

It's a pleasure to be back with you once again. I don't know exactly how many years you've honored me by inviting me back, but it's an appreciable number, and I always enjoy being with you. I guess I should say most of the time. Some of you probably recall my appearance here a year ago. That wasn't much fun for either me or you, because I had the flu or a reasonable facsimile thereof. I was taking a bunch of medicines, which made me sleepy and even a little more confused than I usually am. So I was concerned that I might forget what I was supposed to be talking about and start talking about something like college basketball. And you had to listen to a lot of coughing and congestion. You were very patient, which I greatly appreciated, and I'll try to do better this year. Learning from last year, this year I planned ahead and did the flu early. In any case, I am pretty confident that you will enjoy my talk this year more than the one I gave last year for more fundamental reasons than my better health and voice. Last year the economy was recovering from the 2001 recession, but so slowly most people couldn't feel it. This year we clearly still have a way to go before the recovery will be complete, and there are still risks in the outlook. But by and large, the picture is considerably brighter today than it was a year ago. While current economic prospects are not risk free — they never are — I don't think many would deny that compared to the outlook at this time a year ago, things look pretty good, as I'll indicate in more detail in a minute.