Comments on the Economy and Banking

It is a pleasure to be with you this morning, and I am honored by your invitation to address this Convention once again. When Jack Benny was honored in some way back during his career, he said he didn't deserve the honor. He added, however, that he had arthritis, and he didn't deserve that either. So you accept honors when they come your way, and I appreciate the one you are extending to me via this invitation. I'm getting to be a short-timer at the Fed, and as I approach my retirement at the end of July, I've been reflecting on some of the lessons I've learned over the years. One lesson is that there have been certain keys to doing particular things in my job reasonably successfully, or at least not unsuccessfully. For example, the key to success in making remarks in the business sessions of conventions at places like the Greenbrier, where golf awaits, is to keep one's remarks brief. I've been allotted 15 minutes here this morning, and I'll respect that. I'm probably already down to 13½ minutes. Let me offer a few observations about the current condition of the U.S. economy as I see it, and the outlook for the remainder of the year and the first half or so of next year. As always, these are my own views and not necessarily those of my colleagues on the Federal Open Market Committee.