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The Inflation Story

Author

Listed:
  • Tom Barkin

Abstract

Inflation has proven stubbornly persistent. There is a plausible story for how inflation comes down. That story relies on weakening demand to control inflation. I am still looking to be convinced, both that demand is settling and that any weakness is feeding through to inflation. We will learn a lot more over the next few months. The Fed has moved aggressively against inflation. But we have been moderating the pace of those increases. Think of it as slowing your boat as you approach the dock. If coming data doesn’t support the plausible story, I’m comfortable doing more. The experience of the ‘70s provides a clear lesson: If you back off inflation too soon, inflation comes back stronger, requiring the Fed to do even more, with even more damage.

Suggested Citation

  • Tom Barkin, 2023. "The Inflation Story," Speech 101240, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:r00034:101240
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    File URL: https://www.richmondfed.org/press_room/speeches/thomas_i_barkin/2023/barkin_speech_20230616
    File Function: Speech
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    Keywords

    inflation; monetary policy;

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