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Heading for a Soft Landing?

Author

Listed:
  • Tom Barkin

Abstract

A soft landing is increasingly conceivable but in no way inevitable. I see four risks. The U.S. economy could run out of fuel. We could experience unexpected turbulence. Inflation could level off at a cruising altitude higher than our 2 percent target. And the landing could be delayed as the U.S. economy continues to defy expectations. Is inflation continuing its descent and is the broader economy continuing to fly smoothly? Conviction on both questions will determine the pace and timing of any changes in rates. There’s no autopilot. The data that come in this year will matter.

Suggested Citation

  • Tom Barkin, 2024. "Heading for a Soft Landing?," Speech 101229, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:r00034:101229
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    File URL: https://www.richmondfed.org/press_room/speeches/thomas_i_barkin/2024/barkin_speech_20240103
    File Function: Speech
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