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Making Sense of Recession Probabilities

Author

Listed:
  • Brooke Hathhorn
  • Michael T. Owyang

Abstract

While recession probabilities can provide a snapshot of current economic conditions, relying on them to judge whether a recession is underway can be risky.

Suggested Citation

  • Brooke Hathhorn & Michael T. Owyang, 2025. "Making Sense of Recession Probabilities," On the Economy 100021, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:l00001:100021
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    File URL: https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2025/may/making-sense-recession-probabilities
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    Keywords

    recession forecasts;

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