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Behavior of the real rate of interest over the business cycle

Author

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  • Michael Dotsey
  • Brian Scholl

Abstract

In this paper we document real rate behavior. We do this by looking across a wide variety of constructed real rate series. These series are obtained by using a number of different methodologies for estimating expected inflation, using several different price series, and looking over different time periods. The evidence suggests that over the entire sample period, real rate increases follow output increases and the real rate is positively correlated with contemporaneous output. These results, however, are sensitive to the price series used. That is, we find evidence of specification uncertainty. We also find that real rate behavior varies over different sample periods.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael Dotsey & Brian Scholl, 2000. "Behavior of the real rate of interest over the business cycle," Working Paper 00-09, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedrwp:00-09
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    6. Barberis, Nicholas & Thaler, Richard, 2003. "A survey of behavioral finance," Handbook of the Economics of Finance,in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 18, pages 1053-1128 Elsevier.
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    12. Campbell, John Y., 2003. "Consumption-based asset pricing," Handbook of the Economics of Finance,in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 13, pages 803-887 Elsevier.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jens Larsen & Ben May & James Talbot, 2003. "Estimating real interest rates for the United Kingdom," Bank of England working papers 200, Bank of England.
    2. William T. Gavin & Rachel J. Mandal, 2001. "Forecasting inflation and growth: do private forecasts match those of policymakers?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue May, pages 11-20.

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