IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/fip/fednsr/663.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Assessing financial stability: the Capital and Loss Assessment under Stress Scenarios (CLASS) model

Author

Listed:

Abstract

The CLASS model is a top-down capital stress testing framework that uses public data, simple econometric models, and auxiliary assumptions to project the effect of macroeconomic scenarios on U.S. banking firms. Through the lens of the model, we find that the total banking system capital shortfall under stressful macroeconomic conditions began to rise four years before the financial crisis, peaking in the fourth quarter of 2008. The capital gap has since fallen sharply, and is now significantly below pre-crisis levels. In the cross section, banking firms estimated to be most sensitive to macroeconomic conditions also have higher capital ratios, consistent with a “precautionary” view of bank capital, though this behavior is evident only since the crisis. We interpret our results as evidence that the resiliency of the U.S. banking system has improved since the financial crisis, and also as an illustration of the value of stress testing as a macroprudential policy tool.

Suggested Citation

  • Hirtle, Beverly & Kovner, Anna & Vickery, James & Bhanot, Meru, 2014. "Assessing financial stability: the Capital and Loss Assessment under Stress Scenarios (CLASS) model," Staff Reports 663, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, revised 01 Jul 2015.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fednsr:663
    Note: Previous title: “The Capital and Loss Assessment under Stress Scenarios (CLASS) Model”
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/staff_reports/sr663.html
    File Function: Summary
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/media/research/staff_reports/sr663.pdf
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Covas, Francisco B. & Rump, Ben & Zakrajšek, Egon, 2014. "Stress-testing US bank holding companies: A dynamic panel quantile regression approach," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 691-713.
    2. Acharya, Viral & Engle, Robert & Pierret, Diane, 2014. "Testing macroprudential stress tests: The risk of regulatory risk weights," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 36-53.
    3. Timothy Clark & Astrid A. Dick & Beverly Hirtle & Kevin J. Stiroh & Robard Williams, 2007. "The role of retail banking in the U.S. banking industry: risk, return, and industry structure," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Dec, pages 39-56.
    4. Luca Guerrieri & Michelle Welch, 2012. "Can macro variables used in stress testing forecast the performance of banks?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2012-49, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    5. Eichengreen, Barry & Mody, Ashoka & Nedeljkovic, Milan & Sarno, Lucio, 2012. "How the Subprime Crisis went global: Evidence from bank credit default swap spreads," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 1299-1318.
    6. Calomiris, Charles W. & Nissim, Doron, 2014. "Crisis-related shifts in the market valuation of banking activities," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 400-435.
    7. Eisenbach, Thomas M. & Keister, Todd & McAndrews, James J. & Yorulmazer, Tanju, 2014. "Stability of funding models: an analytical framework," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Feb, pages 29-47.
    8. Viral Acharya & Robert Engle & Matthew Richardson, 2012. "Capital Shortfall: A New Approach to Ranking and Regulating Systemic Risks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(3), pages 59-64, May.
    9. Kau, James B, et al, 1992. "A Generalized Valuation Model for Fixed-Rate Residential Mortgages," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 24(3), pages 279-299, August.
    10. Eric Wong & Cho-Hoi Hui, 2009. "A Liquidity Risk Stress-Testing Framework with Interaction between Market and Credit Risks," Working Papers 0906, Hong Kong Monetary Authority.
    11. Frame, W. Scott & Gerardi, Kristopher S. & Willen, Paul S., 2015. "The failure of supervisory stress testing: Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and OFHEO," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2015-3, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    12. Allen Berger & Robert DeYoung & Mark Flannery & David Lee & Özde Öztekin, 2008. "How Do Large Banking Organizations Manage Their Capital Ratios?," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 34(2), pages 123-149, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. McCracken, Michael W. & McGillicuddy, Joseph, 2017. "An Empirical Investigation of Direct and Iterated Multistep Conditional Forecasts," Working Papers 2017-40, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    2. Hale, Galina & Krainer, John & McCarthy, Erin, 2015. "Aggregation level in stress testing models," Working Paper Series 2015-14, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    3. Armantier, Olivier & Ghysels, Eric & Sarkar, Asani & Shrader, Jeffrey, 2015. "Discount window stigma during the 2007–2008 financial crisis," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(2), pages 317-335.
    4. Flannery, Mark & Hirtle, Beverly & Kovner, Anna, 2017. "Evaluating the information in the federal reserve stress tests," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 1-18.
    5. repec:eee:ecofin:v:43:y:2018:i:c:p:141-157 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. repec:eee:jbfina:v:87:y:2018:i:c:p:164-186 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Gerhard Hambusch & Sherrill Shaffer, 2016. "Forecasting bank leverage: an alternative to regulatory early warning models," Journal of Regulatory Economics, Springer, vol. 50(1), pages 38-69, August.
    8. repec:eee:quaeco:v:68:y:2018:i:c:p:237-253 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Silva, Walmir & Kimura, Herbert & Sobreiro, Vinicius Amorim, 2017. "An analysis of the literature on systemic financial risk: A survey," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 91-114.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    capital; stress testing; financial stability;

    JEL classification:

    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fednsr:663. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Amy Farber). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/frbnyus.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.