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Consumers’ Perspectives on the Recent Movements in Inflation

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Abstract

Inflation in the U.S. has experienced unusually large movements in the last few years, starting with a steep rise between the spring of 2021 and June 2022, followed by a relatively rapid decline over the past twelve months. This marks a stark departure from an extended period of low and stable inflation. Economists and policymakers have expressed differing views about which factors contributed to these large movements (as reported in the media here, here, here, and here), leading to fierce debates in policy circles, academic journals, and the press. We know little, however, about the consumer’s perspective on what caused these sudden movements in inflation. In this post, we explore this question using a special module of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCE) in which consumers were asked what they think contributed to the recent movements in inflation. We find that consumers think supply-side issues were the most important factor behind the 2021-22 inflation surge, while they regard Federal Reserve policies as the most important factor behind the recent and expected future decline in inflation.

Suggested Citation

  • Felix Aidala & Olivier Armantier & Fatima Boumahdi & Gizem Koşar & Devon Lall & Jason Somerville & Giorgio Topa & Wilbert Van der Klaauw, 2023. "Consumers’ Perspectives on the Recent Movements in Inflation," Liberty Street Economics 20230817, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fednls:96586
    Note: Editors Note: The title of this post has been changed from the original. August 17, 2023, 10:35 a.m.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Edward S. Knotek & James Mitchell & Mathieu Pedemonte & Taylor Shiroff, 2024. "The Effects of Interest Rate Increases on Consumers' Inflation Expectations: The Roles of Informedness and Compliance," Working Papers 24-01, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    2. Sarantis Tsiaplias, 2024. "Inflation as a 'bad', heuristics and aggregate shocks: New evidence on expectation formation," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2024n03, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    expectations; inflation; Fed policy; supply chain; pandemic; monetary policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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