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The Evolution of Short-Run r* after the Pandemic

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Abstract

This post discusses the evolution of the short-run natural rate of interest, or short-run r*, over the past year and a half according to the New York Fed DSGE model, and the implications of this evolution for inflation and output projections. We show that, from the model’s perspective, short-run r* has increased notably over the past year, to some extent outpacing the large increase in the policy rate. One implication of these findings is that the drag on the economy from recent monetary policy tightening may have been limited, rationalizing why economic conditions have remained relatively buoyant so far despite the elevated level of interest rates.

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  • Katie Baker & Logan Casey & Marco Del Negro & Aidan Gleich & Ramya Nallamotu, 2023. "The Evolution of Short-Run r* after the Pandemic," Liberty Street Economics 20230810, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fednls:96543
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    File URL: https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2023/08/the-evolution-of-short-run-r-after-the-pandemic/
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    r*; r-star; post-pandemic; Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) models;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit

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