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Look Out for Outlook-at-Risk

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Abstract

The timely characterization of risks to the economic outlook plays an important role in both economic policy and private sector decisions. In a February 2023 Liberty Street Economics post, we introduced the concept of “Outlook-at-Risk”—that is, the downside risk to real activity and two-sided risks to inflation. Today we are launching Outlook-at-Risk as a regularly updated data product, with new readings for the conditional distributions of real GDP growth, the unemployment rate, and inflation to be published each month. In this post, we use the data on conditional distributions to investigate how two-sided risks to inflation and downside risks to real activity have evolved over the current and previous five monetary policy tightening cycles.

Suggested Citation

  • Nina Boyarchenko & Richard K. Crump & Leonardo Elias & Ignacio Lopez Gaffney, 2023. "Look Out for Outlook-at-Risk," Liberty Street Economics 20230517, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fednls:96162
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    File URL: https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2023/05/look-out-for-outlook-at-risk/
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Outlook-at-Risk; monetary policy tightening;

    JEL classification:

    • E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment
    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets

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