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A Turning Point in Wage Growth?

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Abstract

The surge in wage growth experienced by the U.S. economy over the past two years is showing some tentative signs of moderation. In this post, we take a closer look at the underlying data by estimating a model designed to isolate the persistent component—or trend—of wage growth. Our central finding is that this trend may have peaked in early 2022, having experienced an earlier rise and subsequent moderation that were broad-based across sectors. We also find that wage growth seems to be moderating more slowly than the trend in services inflation.

Suggested Citation

  • Richard Audoly & Martín Almuzara & Davide Melcangi, 2023. "A Turning Point in Wage Growth?," Liberty Street Economics 20230223, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fednls:95694
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    File URL: https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2023/02/a-turning-point-in-wage-growth/
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    wage growth; persistence; sectors; Services Inflation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • J0 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - General

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