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Reading the Tea Leaves of the U.S. Business Cycle—Part One

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Abstract

The study of the business cycle—fluctuations in aggregate economic activity between times of widespread expansion and contraction—is one of the foremost pursuits in macroeconomics. But even distinguishing periods of expansion and recession can be challenging. In this post, we discuss different conceptual approaches to dating the business cycle, study their past performance for the U.S. economy, and highlight the informativeness of labor market indicators.

Suggested Citation

  • Richard K. Crump & Domenico Giannone & David O. Lucca, 2020. "Reading the Tea Leaves of the U.S. Business Cycle—Part One," Liberty Street Economics 20200210, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fednls:87452
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Business cycle dating; recessions; expansions; labor markets;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment

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