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Reconciling Survey- and Market-Based Expectations for the Policy Rate

Author

Listed:
  • Bonni Brodsky
  • Marco Del Negro
  • Joseph Fiorica
  • Eric LeSueur
  • Ari Morse
  • Anthony P. Rodrigues

Abstract

In our previous post, we showed that the gap between the market-implied path for the federal funds rate and the survey-implied mean expectations for the federal funds rate from the Survey of Primary Dealers (SPD) and the Survey of Market Participants (SMP) narrowed from the December survey to the January survey. In particular, we provided explanations for this narrowing as well as for the subsequent widening from January to March. This post continues the discussion by presenting a novel approach called ?tilting? that yields insights by measuring how much the survey probability distributions have to be altered to match the market-implied path of the federal funds rate. We interpret any discrepancy between the original and tilted distributions as arising from either risk premia or dispersion in beliefs.

Suggested Citation

  • Bonni Brodsky & Marco Del Negro & Joseph Fiorica & Eric LeSueur & Ari Morse & Anthony P. Rodrigues, 2016. "Reconciling Survey- and Market-Based Expectations for the Policy Rate," Liberty Street Economics 20160408, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fednls:87116
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Dr. Lucas Marc Fuhrer & Dr. Basil Guggenheim & Dr. Matthias Jüttner, 2018. "What do Swiss franc Libor futures really tell us?," Working Papers 2018-06, Swiss National Bank.
    2. Leo Krippner & Michael Callaghan, 2016. "Short-term risk premiums and policy rate expectations in the United States," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Analytical Notes series AN2016/07, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    policy rate; survey expectations; KLIC;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets

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