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Consumer Confidence: A Useful Indicator of . . . the Labor Market?

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Abstract

Consumer confidence is closely monitored by policymakers and commentators because of the presumed insight it can offer into the outlook for consumer spending and thus the economy in general. Yet there’s another useful dimension to consumer confidence that’s often overlooked: its ability to signal incipient developments in the job market. In this post, we look at trends in a particular measure of consumer confidence—the Present Situation Index component of the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index—over the past thirty-five years and show that they’re closely associated with movements in the unemployment rate and in payroll employment.

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  • Joshua Abel & Jason Bram & Robert W. Rich, 2013. "Consumer Confidence: A Useful Indicator of . . . the Labor Market?," Liberty Street Economics 20130904, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fednls:86892
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    Keywords

    consumer confidence; unemployment; employment; labor market;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment
    • J00 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - General - - - General

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