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The Determinants of Mortgage Denial Using Public Data

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Abstract

We analyze over 30 million home purchase mortgage applications from 2018-2024 using publicly available Home Mortgage Disclosure Act (HMDA) data to study the determinants of mortgage denial. We establish three primary findings. First, credit access is highly sensitive to monetary policy; the 2022-2023 tightening drove aggregate denial rates from 12.2% to 15.7% via the debt-to-income (DTI) channel. Second, we identify a critical nonlinearity in underwriting: While the 43% qualified mortgage (QM) threshold---below which lenders receive legal safe harbor from ability-to-repay claims---is non-binding in practice, denial rates jump by 15-17 percentage points at the 50% DTI mark, marking the functional market boundary. Third, substantial racial disparities persist; controlling for lender fixed effects and financials, Black applicants are 7.8 percentage points more likely to be denied than White applicants. Observable characteristics explain at most 41% of this gap. These results demonstrate how monetary tightening interacts with structural inequalities to disproportionately restrict credit access for vulnerable populations at the extensive margin.

Suggested Citation

  • Manu García & Carlos Garriga, 2026. "The Determinants of Mortgage Denial Using Public Data," Working Papers 2026-007, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlwp:103090
    DOI: 10.20955/wp.2026.007
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Patrick Bayer & Fernando Ferreira & Stephen L. Ross, 2018. "What Drives Racial and Ethnic Differences in High-Cost Mortgages? The Role of High-Risk Lenders," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 31(1), pages 175-205.
    2. Munnell, Alicia H. & Geoffrey M. B. Tootell & Lynn E. Browne & James McEneaney, 1996. "Mortgage Lending in Boston: Interpreting HMDA Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(1), pages 25-53, March.
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • R21 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets
    • D14 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Household Saving; Personal Finance
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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