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Predicting Fed Forecasts

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Abstract

Monetary policy decisions by the Fed's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) have attracted considerable attention in recent years, especially with quantitative easing through large-scale asset purchases, the introduction of forward guidance, and December's "lift-off" after seven years of a near-zero federal funds rate. The FOMC's decisions are based in part on the Greenbook forecasts, which are economic forecasts produced by the Federal Reserve Board's staff and which are presented to the FOMC prior to their policy meetings. This note shows that the minutes of the FOMC meetings--and the information in those minutes about the Greenbook forecasts--provide valuable insights into the decision-making process of the FOMC.

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  • Neil R. Ericsson, 2016. "Predicting Fed Forecasts," IFDP Notes 2016-02-12, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgin:2016-02-12
    DOI: 10.17016/2573-2129.17
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    Cited by:

    1. Philip ME Garboden, 2019. "Sources and Types of Big Data for Macroeconomic Forecasting," Working Papers 2019-3, University of Hawaii Economic Research Organization, University of Hawaii at Manoa.

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