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Kalshi and the Rise of Macro Markets

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Abstract

Prediction markets offer a new market-based approach to measuring macroeconomic expectations in real-time. We evaluate the accuracy of prediction market-implied forecasts from Kalshi, the largest federally regulated prediction market overseen by the CFTC. We compare Kalshi with more traditional survey and market-implied forecasts, examine how expectations respond to macroeconomic and financial news, and how policy signals are interpreted by market participants. Our results suggest that Kalshi markets provide a high-frequency, continuously updated, distributionally rich benchmark that is valuable to both researchers and policymakers.

Suggested Citation

  • Anthony M. Diercks & Jared Dean Katz & Jonathan H. Wright, 2026. "Kalshi and the Rise of Macro Markets," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2026-010, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:102839
    DOI: 10.17016/FEDS.2026.010
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    JEL classification:

    • C50 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - General
    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

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