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Some new variance bounds for asset prices: a comment

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  • Kevin J. Lansing

Abstract

Engel (2005) derives a theoretical variance inequality involving the change in equilibrium stock prices Var ( p) : Assuming that stock prices are "cum-dividend" and that investors are risk neutral, he shows that Var ( p) must be greater than or equal to the variance of the "perfect foresight" (or "ex post rational") price change Var ( p*) ; where p* is computed from the discounted stream of subsequent realized dividends. This paper expands the analysis to consider "ex-divdend" prices and risk aversion in a standard Lucas-type asset pricing model. I show that the direction of the price-change variance inequality can be reversed, depending on the values assigned to some key parameters of the model, namely the dividend AR(1) parameter, the investor's subjective time discount factor, and the coefficient of relative risk aversion. Overall, the results demonstrate that the present-value model of stock prices does not impose theoretical bounds on price-change volatility except in some special cases.

Suggested Citation

  • Kevin J. Lansing, 2010. "Some new variance bounds for asset prices: a comment," Working Paper Series 2010-29, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfwp:2010-29
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Angus Deaton, 2008. "Income, Health, and Well-Being around the World: Evidence from the Gallup World Poll," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 22(2), pages 53-72, Spring.
    2. Betsey Stevenson & Justin Wolfers, 2008. "Economic Growth and Subjective Well-Being: Reassessing the Easterlin Paradox," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 39(1 (Spring), pages 1-102.
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    5. Erzo F. P. Luttmer, 2005. "Neighbors as Negatives: Relative Earnings and Well-Being," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 120(3), pages 963-1002.
    6. Angus Deaton, 2010. "Price Indexes, Inequality, and the Measurement of World Poverty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(1), pages 5-34, March.
    7. repec:pri:rpdevs:presidential%20address%2017january%202010%20all.pdf is not listed on IDEAS
    8. repec:pri:cheawb:deaton_income_health_and_wellbeing_around_the_world_evidence_%20from_gallup_world_poll_jep_spring2008 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Easterlin, Richard A., 2009. "Lost in transition: Life satisfaction on the road to capitalism," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 71(2), pages 130-145, August.
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    Cited by:

    1. Vogel, Harold L. & Werner, Richard A., 2015. "An analytical review of volatility metrics for bubbles and crashes," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 15-28.

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    Keywords

    Asset pricing;

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