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Business cycles and remittances: can the Beveridge-Nelson decomposition provide new evidence?

Author

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  • Roberto Coronado

Abstract

In this paper, I analyze the business cycle properties of remittances and output series for three pairs of countries: United States-Mexico, United States-El Salvador, and Germany-Turkey. Using an unobserved components state-space model (via the Beveridge-Nelson decomposition), I decompose the remittances and output series into stochastic permanent and cyclical components. I then use the resulting stationary cyclical components to estimate co-movements between remittances and output series. Empirical results indicate that remittances are countercyclical with all the home countries: Mexico, El Salvador, and Turkey. With respect to source countries, remittances to Mexico are countercyclical with the United States business cycle, while remittances from the United States to El Salvador and remittances from Germany to Turkey are strongly procyclical with output fluctuations in the source country. The contribution of this paper to the literature is twofold: (1) I use high-frequency data (quarterly) for a relatively long period of time; and (2) I employ more recent and sophisticated econometric techniques in the decomposition of the series into stochastic permanent and cyclical components. The existing literature lacks both of these important aspects of my analysis. I show that once both of these factors are incorporated into the analysis, empirical results are more aligned to those predicted by economic theory.

Suggested Citation

  • Roberto Coronado, 2009. "Business cycles and remittances: can the Beveridge-Nelson decomposition provide new evidence?," Globalization Institute Working Papers 40, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:feddgw:40
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    File URL: http://dallasfed.org/assets/documents/institute/wpapers/2009/0040.pdf
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Mazhar Y. Mughal & Junaid Ahmed, 2014. "Remittances and Business Cycles: Comparison of South Asian Countries," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(4), pages 513-541, December.
    2. Isabel Ruiz & Carlos Vargas-Silva, 2012. "Exploring the causes of the slowdown in remittances to Mexico," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 42(3), pages 745-766, June.
    3. Omneia HELMY & Chahir ZAKI & Aliaa ABDALLAH, 2020. "Do Workers’ Remittances Promote Consumption Stability In Egypt?," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 20(2), pages 127-144.
    4. Iryna Kurevina, 2014. "Remittances, Consumption And Investments In Ukraine: VAR/VEC Estimates," Ukrainian Journal Ekonomist, Yuriy Kovalenko, issue 2, pages 11-14, February.
    5. Mark A. Wynne, 2012. "Five Years of Research on Globalization and Monetary Policy: What Have We Learned?," Annual Report, Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, pages 2-17.
    6. Jesus Mendoza & Nathan Ashby, 2019. "Mexican Migration Flows to the United States: The Impact of Business Cycles on Unauthorized Immigration to the United States," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 39(2), pages 798-815.
    7. Mahalia JACKMAN, 2014. "Investigating the Business Cycle Properties of Remittances to the Caribbean," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 14(1), pages 87-100.
    8. Francisco Corona & Pedro Orraca, 2019. "Remittances in Mexico and their unobserved components," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(8), pages 1047-1066, November.
    9. Junaid Ahmed, 2012. "Cyclical Properties of Migrant's Remittances to Pakistan: What the data tell us," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 32(4), pages 3266-3278.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Business cycles; Emigrant remittances; Time-series analysis; Econometric models; Stochastic analysis;
    All these keywords.

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