A Fourth District Groundhog in London’s Financial District

Not far from Pittsburgh in the Fourth District is Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania, famous for its annual Groundhog Day celebration. Lately, I’ve been feeling a bit like Bill Murray’s character in the movie Groundhog Day. For Phil Connors—Bill Murray’s character—every day begins with his alarm going off to the song “I Got You Babe,” Ned Ryerson inevitably tries to sell him life insurance, a blizzard forces him to spend the night, and he wakes up, once again, on February 2nd. Now, if you’re a frequent follower of Fed commentary, you, too, may begin to experience a sort of déjà vu. For me, most conversations I have with business contacts seem to hinge on the theme of elevated uncertainty, and each day I scan the economic releases for clarity in the data. Until we get to that moment, I appreciate that hearing me repeatedly say that we need to wait for more data must feel like your own version of Groundhog Day. Though my words may sound the same to you, like Phil Connors, I am living each day differently, scrutinizing the data and learning how regional leaders are changing behavior in this uncertain environment. I am confident that one day, though it may not be soon, we will wake up to find more confidence in the outlook, clarifying the path forward.