IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/fip/fedawp/2011-08.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Chi-squared tests for evaluation and comparison of asset pricing models

Author

Listed:
  • Nikolay Gospodinov
  • Raymond Kan
  • Cesare Robotti

Abstract

Using data for the Philippines, I develop and estimate a heterogeneous agent model to analyze the role of monetary policy in a small open economy subject to sizable remittance fluctuations. I include rule-of-thumb households with no access to financial markets and test whether remittances are countercyclical and serve as an insurance mechanism against macroeconomic shocks. When evaluating the welfare implications of alternative monetary rules, I consider both an anticipated large secular increase in the trend growth of remittances and random cyclical fluctuations around this trend. In a purely deterministic framework, a nominal fixed exchange rate regime avoids a rapid real appreciation and performs better for recipient households facing an increasing trend for remittances. A flexible floating regime is preferred when unanticipated shocks driving the business cycle are also part of the picture.

Suggested Citation

  • Nikolay Gospodinov & Raymond Kan & Cesare Robotti, 2011. "Chi-squared tests for evaluation and comparison of asset pricing models," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2011-08, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedawp:2011-08
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.frbatlanta.org/documents/pubs/wp/wp1108.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Almeida, Caio & Garcia, René, 2012. "Assessing misspecified asset pricing models with empirical likelihood estimators," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 170(2), pages 519-537.
    2. Abel, Andrew B, 1990. "Asset Prices under Habit Formation and Catching Up with the Joneses," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(2), pages 38-42, May.
    3. Hansen, Lars Peter & Jagannathan, Ravi, 1997. " Assessing Specification Errors in Stochastic Discount Factor Models," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(2), pages 557-590, June.
    4. Jagannathan, Ravi & Wang, Zhenyu, 1996. " The Conditional CAPM and the Cross-Section of Expected Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(1), pages 3-53, March.
    5. Nikolay Gospodinov & Raymond Kan & Cesare Robotti, 2010. "On the Hansen-Jagannathan distance with a no-arbitrage constraint," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2010-04, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    6. Xiaohong Chen & Sydney C. Ludvigson, 2009. "Land of addicts? an empirical investigation of habit-based asset pricing models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(7), pages 1057-1093.
    7. Stefan Nagel & Kenneth J. Singleton, 2011. "Estimation and Evaluation of Conditional Asset Pricing Models," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 66(3), pages 873-909, June.
    8. Hansen, Peter Reinhard, 2005. "A Test for Superior Predictive Ability," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 23, pages 365-380, October.
    9. Martin Lettau & Sydney Ludvigson, 2001. "Resurrecting the (C)CAPM: A Cross-Sectional Test When Risk Premia Are Time-Varying," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 109(6), pages 1238-1287, December.
    10. Chen, Xiaohong & Hong, Han & Shum, Matthew, 2007. "Nonparametric likelihood ratio model selection tests between parametric likelihood and moment condition models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 141(1), pages 109-140, November.
    11. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1993. "Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 3-56, February.
    12. Raymond Kan & Cesare Robotti, 2009. "Model Comparison Using the Hansen-Jagannathan Distance," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(9), pages 3449-3490, September.
    13. Sowell, Fallaw, 1996. "Optimal Tests for Parameter Instability in the Generalized Method of Moments Framework," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(5), pages 1085-1107, September.
    14. Smith, Richard J, 1997. "Alternative Semi-parametric Likelihood Approaches to Generalised Method of Moments Estimation," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 107(441), pages 503-519, March.
    15. Guido W. Imbens & Richard H. Spady & Phillip Johnson, 1998. "Information Theoretic Approaches to Inference in Moment Condition Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(2), pages 333-358, March.
    16. Lien, Donald & Vuong, Quang H., 1987. "Selecting the best linear regression model : A classical approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 3-23, May.
    17. Vuong, Quang H, 1989. "Likelihood Ratio Tests for Model Selection and Non-nested Hypotheses," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 307-333, March.
    18. Nikolay Gospodinov & Raymond Kan & Cesare Robotti, 2012. "Further Results on the Limiting Distribution of GMM Sample Moment Conditions," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(4), pages 494-504, May.
    19. Hall, Alastair R. & Pelletier, Denis, 2011. "Nonnested Testing In Models Estimated Via Generalized Method Of Moments," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 27(02), pages 443-456, April.
    20. Brown, David P & Gibbons, Michael R, 1985. " A Simple Econometric Approach for Utility-based Asset Pricing Models," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(2), pages 359-381, June.
    21. Jonathan A. Parker & Christian Julliard, 2005. "Consumption Risk and the Cross Section of Expected Returns," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(1), pages 185-222, February.
    22. K. Newey, Whitney, 1985. "Generalized method of moments specification testing," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 229-256, September.
    23. Motohiro Yogo, 2006. "A Consumption-Based Explanation of Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(2), pages 539-580, April.
    24. Massimiliano Marcellino & Barbara Rossi, 2008. "Model Selection for Nested and Overlapping Nonlinear, Dynamic and Possibly Mis-specified Models," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 70(s1), pages 867-893, December.
    25. Kan, Raymond & Zhang, Chu, 1999. "GMM tests of stochastic discount factor models with useless factors," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 103-127, October.
    26. Hansen, Lars Peter & Heaton, John & Luttmer, Erzo G J, 1995. "Econometric Evaluation of Asset Pricing Models," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 8(2), pages 237-274.
    27. Ahn, Seung C. & Gadarowski, Christopher, 2004. "Small sample properties of the GMM specification test based on the Hansen-Jagannathan distance," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 109-132, January.
    28. Li, Haitao & Xu, Yuewu & Zhang, Xiaoyan, 2010. "Evaluating asset pricing models using the second Hansen-Jagannathan distance," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(2), pages 279-301, August.
    29. James H. Stock & Jonathan Wright, 2000. "GMM with Weak Identification," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(5), pages 1055-1096, September.
    30. Halbert White, 2000. "A Reality Check for Data Snooping," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(5), pages 1097-1126, September.
    31. Kan, Raymond & Robotti, Cesare, 2008. "Specification tests of asset pricing models using excess returns," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(5), pages 816-838, December.
    32. Donald W. K. Andrews & Gustavo Soares, 2010. "Inference for Parameters Defined by Moment Inequalities Using Generalized Moment Selection," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 78(1), pages 119-157, January.
    33. Douglas Rivers & Quang Vuong, 2002. "Model selection tests for nonlinear dynamic models," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 5(1), pages 1-39, June.
    34. Wolak, Frank A., 1989. "Testing inequality constraints in linear econometric models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 205-235, June.
    35. R. Golden, 2003. "Discrepancy Risk Model Selection Test theory for comparing possibly misspecified or nonnested models," Psychometrika, Springer;The Psychometric Society, vol. 68(2), pages 229-249, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Kwan, Yum K. & Leung, Charles Ka Yui & Dong, Jinyue, 2015. "Comparing consumption-based asset pricing models: The case of an Asian city," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 18-41.
    2. Prosper Donovon & Alastair R. Hall, 2015. "GMM and Indirect Inference: An appraisal of their connections and new results on their properties under second order identification," The School of Economics Discussion Paper Series 1505, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    3. Fletcher, Jonathan, 2014. "Benchmark models of expected returns in U.K. portfolio performance: An empirical investigation," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 30-46.
    4. Gospodinov, Nikolay & Kan, Raymond & Robotti, Cesare, 2015. "Asymptotic variance approximations for invariant estimators in uncertain asset-pricing models," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2015-9, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    5. Gospodinov, Nikolay & Maasoumi, Esfandiar, 2017. "General Aggregation of Misspecified Asset Pricing Models," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2017-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    6. Gospodinov, Nikolay & Kan, Raymond & Robotti, Cesare, 2016. "On the properties of the constrained Hansen–Jagannathan distance," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 121-150.
    7. J. Davies & Jonathan Fletcher & Andrew Marshall, 2015. "Testing index-based models in U.K. stock returns," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 45(2), pages 337-362, August.
    8. Stefano Giglio & Dacheng Xiu, 2017. "Inference on Risk Premia in the Presence of Omitted Factors," NBER Working Papers 23527, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Beaulieu, Marie-Claude & Gagnon, Marie-Hélène & Khalaf, Lynda, 2016. "Less is more: Testing financial integration using identification-robust asset pricing models," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 171-190.
    10. Mardi Dungey & Vitali Alexeev & Jing Tian & Alastair R. Hall, 2015. "Econometricians Have Their Moments: GMM at 32," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 91, pages 1-24, June.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedawp:2011-08. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Elaine Clokey). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/frbatus.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.