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Robustness of stationary tests under long-memory alternatives

  • Lima, Luiz Renato Regis de Oliveira
  • Xiao, Zhijie

This paper investigates the presence of long memory in financiaI time series using four test statistics: V/S, KPSS, KS and modified R/S. There has been a large amount of study on the long memory behavior in economic and financiaI time series. However, there is still no consensus. We argue in this paper that spurious short-term memory may be found due to the incorrect use of data-dependent bandwidth to estimating the longrun variance. We propose a partially adaptive lag truncation procedure that is robust against the presence of long memory under the alternative hypothesis and revisit several economic and financiaI time series using the proposed bandwidth choice. Our results indicate the existence of spurious short memory in real exchange rates when Andrews' formula is employed, but long memory is detected when the proposed lag truncation procedure is used. Using stock market data, we also found short memory in returns and long memory in volatility.

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Paper provided by FGV/EPGE Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil) in its series Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) with number 541.

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Date of creation: 01 Apr 2004
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Handle: RePEc:fgv:epgewp:541
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