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Modelos de ciclos reais de negócios aplicados à economis brasileira

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  • Val, Paulo Rogério da Costa
  • Ferreira, Pedro Cavalcanti

Abstract

O objetivo deste trabalho é testar modelos clássicos de real business cycles para a economia brasileira. Em um primeiro estágio busca-se fatos estilizados, o que foi feito através da escolha de séries adequadas e da separação dos componetes cíclicos e da análise dos ciclos resultantes. Os parâmetros dos diversos modelos foram estimados utilizando o Método Generalizado dos Momentos (MGM). Estes parâmetros foram utilizados para construir diversas economias artificiais que, após simulação, foram confrontadas com os dados da economia brasileira. Entre todos testados, o modelo que melhor se adequou aos dados foi de cash in advance com taxação distorciva. Entretanto, alguns fatos estilizados importantes, como por exemplo o excesso de volatilidade do consumo, não foram adequadamente reproduzidos pelos modelos testados.

Suggested Citation

  • Val, Paulo Rogério da Costa & Ferreira, Pedro Cavalcanti, 2002. "Modelos de ciclos reais de negócios aplicados à economis brasileira," FGV/EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 438, FGV/EPGE - Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil).
  • Handle: RePEc:fgv:epgewp:438
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    Cited by:

    1. Leandro Gonçalves do Nascimento, 2004. "Investment in Human Capital in a Macrodynamic Framework: Redistributive Taxation, Public Debt and Welfare," Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings 539, Econometric Society.
    2. Leandro Nascimento, 2004. "Investment in Human Capital in a Macrodynamic Framework: Redistributive Taxation, Public Debt and Welfare," Econometric Society 2004 Latin American Meetings 100, Econometric Society.

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