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Moratória interna, dívida pública e juros reais

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  • Marques, Maria Silvia Bastos
  • Werlang, Sérgio Ribeiro da Costa

Abstract

Desenvolve-se, neste trabalho, um modelo de oferta e de demanda de dívida pública. Através dele estuda-se a dinâmica da dívida pública e dos juros reais. Introduz-se a possibilidade de moratória interna e seus efeitos são analisados. Para o caso do Brasil, descobre-se que a seigniorage do governo é uma variável aleatória independente da taxa de inflação, quando esta atinge valores elevados. Através de estimativas, são feitas simulações para o caso brasileiro. Um dos resultados é que, sem a possibilidade de moratória interna, o governo não teria problemas em financiar sua dívida. Porém, uma pequena chance de ocorrência desta moratória interna faz com que os juros reais e a relação dívida/PIB explodam.

Suggested Citation

  • Marques, Maria Silvia Bastos & Werlang, Sérgio Ribeiro da Costa, 1988. "Moratória interna, dívida pública e juros reais," FGV EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 132, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil).
    • Handle: RePEc:fgv:epgewp:132
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