IDEAS home Printed from
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Modelando a mudança estrutural do consumo e da renda agregados no Brasil: fatos estilizados a partir de um modelo de cointegração com parâmetros variando no tempo


  • Leite, Fernando Scarpa Rezende
  • Marçal, Emerson Fernandes


O trabalho tem como objetivo analisar a relação entre consumo e renda agregados das famílias no Brasil para os últimos 60 anos. Para realizar esta análise, foi utilizado a metodologia econométrica construída por Bierens e Martins (2010), que consiste na estimação de Vetor Autoregressivo com Mecanismo de Correção de Erros (VECM) similar ao modelo proposto por Johansen (1988), porém permitindo que o vetor de cointegração varie ao longo do tempo. Este modelo estimado mostrou-se melhor comparado a análise tradicional de Johansen (1988). Os resultados obtidos neste trabalho sugerem que a dinâmica do consumo e da renda variou ao longo do período amostral e que o consumo brasileiro parece não ser bem descrito por um passeio aleatório.

Suggested Citation

  • Leite, Fernando Scarpa Rezende & Marçal, Emerson Fernandes, 2011. "Modelando a mudança estrutural do consumo e da renda agregados no Brasil: fatos estilizados a partir de um modelo de cointegração com parâmetros variando no tempo," Textos para discussão 293, FGV/EESP - Escola de Economia de São Paulo, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil).
  • Handle: RePEc:fgv:eesptd:293

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL:
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    1. James R. Tybout, 2000. "Manufacturing Firms in Developing Countries: How Well Do They Do, and Why?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 38(1), pages 11-44, March.
    2. Funkhouser, Edward, 1996. "The urban informal sector in Central America: Household survey evidence," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 24(11), pages 1737-1751, November.
    3. Rosenzweig, Mark R., 1988. "Labor markets in low-income countries," Handbook of Development Economics,in: Hollis Chenery & T.N. Srinivasan (ed.), Handbook of Development Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 15, pages 713-762 Elsevier.
    4. Lehmann, Hartmut & Pignatti, Norberto, 2007. "Informal Employment Relationships and Labor Market Segmentation in Transition Economies: Evidence from Ukraine," IZA Discussion Papers 3269, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    5. Andrei Shleifer & Florencio Lopez-de-Silanes & Rafael La Porta, 2008. "The Economic Consequences of Legal Origins," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 46(2), pages 285-332, June.
    6. Pradhan, Menno & van Soest, Arthur, 1995. "Formal and informal sector employment in urban areas of Bolivia," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 2(3), pages 275-297, September.
    7. James J. Heckman & Carmen Pagés, 2004. "Law and Employment: Lessons from Latin America and the Caribbean," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number heck04-1, January.
    8. Carmen Pagés-Serra & James J. Heckman, 2000. "The Cost of Job Security Regulation: Evidence from Latin American Labor Markets," Research Department Publications 4227, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    9. Aureo de Paula & Jose A. Scheinkman, 2009. "The Informal Sector: An Equilibrium Model and Some Empirical Evidence from Brazil, Second Version," PIER Working Paper Archive 10-024, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania, revised 26 Jul 2010.
    10. James J. Heckman & Carmen Pagés, 2004. "Introduction to "Law and Employment: Lessons from Latin American and the Caribbean"," NBER Chapters,in: Law and Employment: Lessons from Latin America and the Caribbean, pages 1-108 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Fields, Gary S., 1975. "Rural-urban migration, urban unemployment and underemployment, and job-search activity in LDCs," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 165-187, June.
    12. Fernando Botelho & Vladimir Ponczek, 2011. "Segmentation in the Brazilian Labor Market," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 59(2), pages 437-463.
    13. Djankov, Simeon & Ramalho, Rita, 2009. "Employment laws in developing countries," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 3-13, March.
    14. Olivier Bargain & Prudence Kwenda, 2010. "Is informality bad? Evidence from Brazil, Mexico and South Africa," Working Papers 201003, School of Economics, University College Dublin.
    15. Funkhouser, Edward, 1997. "Mobility and Labor Market Segmentation: The Urban Labor Market in El Salvador," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 46(1), pages 123-153, October.
    16. Maloney, William F., 2004. "Informality Revisited," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 32(7), pages 1159-1178, July.
    17. Horst Feldmann, 2009. "The quality of the legal system and labor market performance around the world," European Journal of Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 28(1), pages 39-65, August.
    18. Amadeo, Edward Joaquim & Gill, Indermit S. & Neri, Marcelo Cortes, 2000. "Brazil: the pressure points in labor legislation," FGV/EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 395, FGV/EPGE - Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil).
    19. Chandra, Vandana & Khan, M Ali, 1993. "Foreign Investment in the Presence of an Informal Sector," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 60(237), pages 79-103, February.
    20. Magnac, Th, 1991. "Segmented or Competitive Labor Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(1), pages 165-187, January.
    21. repec:eid:wpaper:12/09 is not listed on IDEAS
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:


    Access and download statistics


    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fgv:eesptd:293. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Núcleo de Computação da FGV/EPGE). General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.