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Descomposición del ciclo económico en España hasta el cuarto trimestre de 2026

Author

Listed:
  • José E. Boscá
  • Rafael Doménech
  • Javier Ferri
  • Vicente Pallardó
  • Camilo Ulloa

Abstract

En esta edición del Observatorio del Ciclo analizamos los determinantes del ciclo económico en España, utilizando la información disponible hasta el segundo trimestre de 2026, tras la reciente revisión del INE del mes de septiembre. Además, ampliamos el análisis, mediante proyecciones, a los dos últimos trimestres de año. Para ello, empleamos una descomposición de perturbaciones estructurales (shocks) a partir del modelo macroeconómico EREMS (véase Boscá et al., 2020), que permite identificar los factores de oferta, demanda y crédito que subyacen a la evolución de los principales agregados económicos. Diversas instituciones internacionales, como la Comisión Europea (véase Kollmann et al., 2016, o Albonico et al., 2017), utilizan herramientas similares para analizar el comportamiento de la eurozona y Estados Unidos.

Suggested Citation

  • José E. Boscá & Rafael Doménech & Javier Ferri & Vicente Pallardó & Camilo Ulloa, 2026. "Descomposición del ciclo económico en España hasta el cuarto trimestre de 2026," Studies on the Spanish Economy eee2026-33, FEDEA.
    • Handle: RePEc:fda:fdaeee:eee2026-33
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