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Comportamiento cíclico del PIB hasta el primer trimestre de 2025 e incertidumbre arancelaria. Observatorio sobre el ciclo económico en España

Author

Listed:
  • José E. Boscá
  • Rafael Doménech
  • Javier Ferri
  • Vicente Pallardó
  • Camilo Ulloa

Abstract

En esta edición del Observatorio del Ciclo se aborda el estudio de los determinantes del ciclo económico en España con la información completa publicada por el INE hasta el primer trimestre de 2025. Para ello, utilizamos una descomposición de shocks a partir del modelo macroeconómico EREMS (véase Boscá et al. 2020). Desde la anterior edición del Observatorio han transcurrido tres trimestres, en los que la elección de Donald Trump como presidente de EE. UU. en su segunda legislatura está reconfigurando el orden económico y comercial vigente durante décadas. La incertidumbre asociada a la propuesta arancelaria del presidente americano ha sumido al mundo en una situación de elevada incertidumbre que se prolongará, al menos, durante los tres meses de negociación de nuevos acuerdos comerciales bilaterales.

Suggested Citation

  • José E. Boscá & Rafael Doménech & Javier Ferri & Vicente Pallardó & Camilo Ulloa, 2025. "Comportamiento cíclico del PIB hasta el primer trimestre de 2025 e incertidumbre arancelaria. Observatorio sobre el ciclo económico en España," Studies on the Spanish Economy eee2025-09, FEDEA.
    • Handle: RePEc:fda:fdaeee:eee2025-09
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