Evaluacion de los efectos del plan Prever a partir de un modelo de simulacion a partir de un modelo de simulacion de reemplazos del parque español de automoviles

In order to evaluate the performance of the Plan Prever (a scrapping scheme introduced by the Spanish government in 1997), we propose a model of car replacement. It is based in the recent literature on investment goods replacement and allows for a quantitative evaluation of the effects on car's life time of a replacement subsidize. After calibration on Spanish data,the model predicts that the Plan Prever should have had an initial effect of around 200.000 additional car sales during 1997 and 1998. However, the observed replacement functions for these years reduce the effect to some 80.000 units. For the following years, the model predicts less than 20.000 additional units per year.