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Comment : Le bilan préliminaire du quinquennat de F. Holland

Listed author(s):
  • Bruno Ducoudré

    (OFCE-Sciences PO)

  • Pierre Madec

    (OFCE-Sciences Po)

  • Hervé Péleraux

    (OFCE-Sciences Po)

  • Mathieu Plane

    (OFCE-Sciences Po)

  • Raul Sampognaro

    (OFCE-Sciences PO)

Au 1er trimestre 2016, le PIB par tête de la France a retrouvé un niveau légèrement supérieur (+0,5 %) à celui atteint juste avant le déclenchement de la Grande Crise, début 2008 (graphique 1). Au 2ème trimestre 2017, à la fin du mandat de F. Hollande et selon nos prévisions, l’écart avec le 1er trimestre 2008 s’accroîtrait encore et serait de +2,4 %. On pourrait voir dans ces résultats l’effacement de huit années de crise, marquées, en 2008?2009, par la récession la plus sévère depuis la crise des années 1930, puis par la mise en place de politiques d’austérité massives en Europe visant à faire face à la crise des dettes souveraines et à réduire des déficits largement creusés après la récession. Pourtant, les enseignements à tirer de cet apparent retour à la normale sont, à maints égards, à relativiser puisque ce dernier sous?tend une quasi?stagnation de la production par tête durant huit années, situation inédite en France depuis la fin de la Seconde Guerre mondiale.

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File URL: http://www.ofce.sciences-po.fr/pdf/dtravail/WP2016-26.pdf
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Paper provided by Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE) in its series Documents de Travail de l'OFCE with number 2016-26.

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Date of creation: Sep 2016
Handle: RePEc:fce:doctra:1626
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  1. Bruno Ducoudre & Eric Heyer & Mathieu Plane, 2016. "CICE et Pacte de responsabilité : une évaluation selon la position dans le cycle," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/5q3au1dm568, Sciences Po.
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