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Does the Length of the Current Expansion Increase the Probability of Recession?

Author

Listed:
  • Backa, L

Abstract

This paper examines whether there is any reason to believe that the expansion phase of the Canadian business cycle is more likely to end as time passes. Three issues are analysed -- whether there is evidence of "duration dependence" in business cycle phases, whether the pattern of business cycle durations has changed over time, and whether the lenght of one phase helps to predict the length of the next.

Suggested Citation

  • Backa, L, 1996. "Does the Length of the Current Expansion Increase the Probability of Recession?," Working Papers-Department of Finance Canada 1996-06, Department of Finance Canada.
    • Handle: RePEc:fca:wpfnca:1996-06
    as

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    BUSINESS CYCLES ; CANADA;

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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