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Common Cycles in Volatility and Cross Section of Stock Returns

Author

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  • Jozef Barunik

    (Institute of Economic Studies, Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University in Prague, Smetanovo nabrezi 6, 111 01 Prague 1, Czech Republic
    Institute of Information Theory and Automation, Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic, Pod Vodarenskou Vezi 4, 182 00, Prague, Czech Republic)

  • Lucie Kraicova

    (Institute of Economic Studies, Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University in Prague, Smetanovo nabrezi 6, 111 01 Prague 1, Czech Republic)

Abstract

We study the relationship between conditional quantiles of returns and the long-, medium- and short-term volatility in a portfolio of financial assets. We argue that the combination of quantile panel regression and wavelet decomposition of the volatility time series provides us with new insights into the pricing of risk and increases the accuracy of our estimates of re-turn quantiles. Our results contribute to the literature on the risk-return relationship with an emphasis on portfolio management under various investment horizons. Moreover, the analytical framework that we introduce should be applicable to a wide range of problems outside of our research area.

Suggested Citation

  • Jozef Barunik & Lucie Kraicova, 2017. "Common Cycles in Volatility and Cross Section of Stock Returns," Working Papers IES 2017/19, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Aug 2017.
    • Handle: RePEc:fau:wpaper:wp2017_19
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    File URL: http://ies.fsv.cuni.cz/sci/publication/show/id/5692/lang/cs
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Return predictability; Quantiles; Wavelets; Panel data;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C21 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation

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