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Estimating LGD Correlation

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Abstract

The paper proposes a new method to estimate correlation of account level Basle II Loss Given Default (LGD). The correlation determines the probability distribution of portfolio level LGD in the context of a copula model which is used to stress the LGD parameter as well as to estimate the LGD discount rate and other parameters. Given historical LGD observations we apply the maximum likelihood method to estimate the best correlation parameter. The method is applied and analyzed on a real large data set of unsecured retail account level LGDs and the corresponding monthly series of the average LGDs. The correlation estimate comes relatively close to the PD regulatory correlation. It is also tested for stability using the bootstrapping method and used in an efficient formula to estimate ex ante one-year stressed LGD, i.e. one-year LGD quantiles on any reasonable probability level.

Suggested Citation

  • Jiří Witzany, 2009. "Estimating LGD Correlation," Working Papers IES 2009/21, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Sep 2009.
  • Handle: RePEc:fau:wpaper:wp2009_21
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    File URL: http://ies.fsv.cuni.cz/default/file/download/id/11267
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    Keywords

    credit risk; recovery rate; loss given default; correlation; regulatory capital;

    JEL classification:

    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General

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