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Loss, Default, and Loss Given Default Modeling



The goal of the Basle II regulatory formula is to model the unexpected loss on a loan portfolio. The regulatory formula is based on an asymptotic portfolio unexpected default rate estimation that is multiplied by an estimate of the loss given default parameter. This simplification leads to a surprising phenomenon when the resulting regulatory capital depends on the definition of default that plays the role of a frontier between the unexpected default rate estimate and the LGD parameter whose unexpected development is not modeled at all or only partially. We study the phenomenon in the context of single-factor models where default and loss given default are driven by one systemic factor and by one or more idiosyncratic factors. In this theoretical framework we propose and analyze a relatively simple remedy of the problem requiring that the LGD parameter be estimated as a quantile on the required probability level.

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  • Jiří Witzany, 2009. "Loss, Default, and Loss Given Default Modeling," Working Papers IES 2009/09, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Feb 2009.
  • Handle: RePEc:fau:wpaper:wp2009_09

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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Janda, Karel & Moreira, David, 2016. "Predicting bankruptcy in European e-commerce sector," MPRA Paper 74460, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item


    credit risk; correlation; recovery rate; regulatory capital;

    JEL classification:

    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General

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