The determinants of household's flood mitigation decisions in France – evidence of feedback effects from past investments

In this paper, we investigate the determinants of private flood mitigation in France. We conducted a survey among 331 inhabitants of two flood-prone areas and collected data on several topics, including individual flood mitigation, risk perception, risk experience, and sociodemographic characteristics. We estimate discrete choice models to explain either the presence of precautionary measures implemented by the household, or the intention to take such measures. We test the robustness of the Protection Motivation Theory in France, discuss its scope and investigate the existence of feedback effects from past investments on people's protection intentions. Our results confirm that the Protection Motivation Theory is a relevant framework to describe the mechanisms of private flood mitigation in France, highlighting in particular the importance of threat appraisal, threat experience appraisal, and coping appraisal. Some sociodemographic features are also significant to explain private flood mitigation. Our results also give evidence for feedback effects as they suggest that implementing precautionary measures reduces perceptions of the risk of flooding. The existence of these feedback effects implies that intended measures, rather than implemented ones, should be examined to explore further the determinants of private flood mitigation.