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Forecasting Value at Risk in Emerging Arab Stock Markets


  • C. Guermat

    (Department of Economics, University of Exeter)

  • K. Hadri

    (University of Liverpool)

  • C. C. Kucukozmen

    (BDDK, Turkey)


The economic and political instability of most of the Arab countries may lead to the assumption that Arab stock markets are riskier and less predictable than stock markets in developed countries. Value at Risk (VaR) measures risk exposure at a given probability level and is very important for risk management. In this paper extreme value theory with volatility updating is used to forecast Value at Risk in three emerging Arab stock markets and the US stock market. Several forecast accuracy criteria are used to compare forecast performance in the four stock markets, including a suggested asymmetric forecast criterion. The various criteria used in this paper suggest that Arab stock markets are less risky than the US stock market.

Suggested Citation

  • C. Guermat & K. Hadri & C. C. Kucukozmen, 2003. "Forecasting Value at Risk in Emerging Arab Stock Markets," Discussion Papers 0303, Exeter University, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:exe:wpaper:0303

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    More about this item


    Value-at-Risk; Extreme Events; Hill Estimator; Volatility Updating.;

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C40 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - General
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages


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