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Procura final de energia em Portugal: Existe evidência sobre a presença de memória longa?

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  • José Manuel Belbute

    () (Universidade de Évora, Departamento de Economia & CEFAGE-UE, Portugal)

Abstract

A persistente escalada do preço dos combustíveis fósseis à qual está associada uma enorme volatilidade de curto prazo, assim como as crescentes preocupações com as emissões de gases com efeitos sobre as alterações climáticas, alimentou nos últimos anos a discussão e as preocupações de política, do seu desenho e eficácia, sobre as possibilidades de substituição das fontes energéticas. O presente artigo pretende dar um contributo para essa discussão ao avaliar a hipótese da presença de memória longa na procura energética desagregada em Portugal. Usando dados mensais da Direção Geral de Energia e Minas (DGEM) e do Eurostat entre 1985 e 2011, os nossos resultados sugerem que não é possível rejeitar a hipótese da presença de memória longa na procura de energia agregada e desagregada (petróleo e derivados, eletricidade, carvão e gaz), com reversão para a média de forma muito lenta. resultados têm importantes implicações de política, pois sugerem que os choques de política têm efeitos permanentes na procura energética em Portugal.

Suggested Citation

  • José Manuel Belbute, 2013. "Procura final de energia em Portugal: Existe evidência sobre a presença de memória longa?," Economics Working Papers 1_2013, University of Évora, Department of Economics (Portugal).
  • Handle: RePEc:evo:wpecon:1_2013
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    Keywords

    Persistência; memória longa; Procura final de energia; persistência; Modelo ARFIMA; Portugal;

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products
    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices

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