Aiming for more: research and development investment scenarios for the next decade

This paper analyses four possible scenarios for R&D expenditures over the next decade and quantifies efforts from national governments and from the industry under these scenarios as well as the investment gap with respect to a 3% R&D intensity. The paper also analyses trends by country, showing a mixed picture across the EU, and extrapolates these trends over the next decade. The findings suggest that rather low increases in public R&D spending over the last decade call for more public investment in the coming years, further accompanied by a strengthened role of private investment. Furthermore, public R&D investment needs to ensure excellent public science bases and science-based innovation. Beyond effective investment strategies, policy makers also need to consider a broader impact of policies and pursue structural reforms of national R&I systems. Other framework conditions could enable broader diffusion of innovations and support the uptake of digital skills and competencies.