RADAR – A system dynamics model: Analysing long-term impacts of R&I policy on competitive sustainability

This study focuses on two critical technological domains: mRNA technology in biotechnology and green hydrogen in clean energy, aligning with Ursula von der Leyen’s political guidelines for the 2024–2029 (European Commission, 2024c). mRNA technology represents a breakthrough in precision medicine, through its rapid, scalable and adaptable solutions, enhancing health resilience and long-term societal well-being. Similarly, green hydrogen is central to achieving climate neutrality and strategic autonomy under the European Green Deal, as it provides a pathway for industrial decarbonisation and energy security. The study demonstrates that system dynamics modelling can contribute significantly to the ex-ante impact assessment and, potentially, to ex-post evaluations of research and innovation (R&I) policies and policy portfolios. This methodological approach captures the complex interdependencies and non-linearities inherent in innovation systems, providing policymakers with a better, evidence-based understanding of how R&I policy measures interact over time and what plausible medium- and long-term outcomes different policy interventions may yield on competitive sustainability. Enriching a pipeline view of the innovation process by considering delays and feedback mechanisms brings these analytical possibilities but also emphasises on a deterministic view of the innovation process that is more consistent with the reality of research organisations and corporations than startups and other types of innovative organisations.